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African swine fever may cause 15% to 20% drop of pork production in China
CKN
2019/08/01 08:16:30
1,994
African swine fever, pork production,

Aug 01, 2019 (China Knowledge) - Due to the repercussion of African swine fever broken out in last August, pig stocks keep declining while pork is climbing up in China. So far, more than 1 million pigs have been culled for preventing the outbreaks to further spread.

The president of the China Meat Association Li Shuilong estimates that the total pork production may decrease by 15% to 20% this year in China, which means a drop of 8 million to 10 million tons of pork. According to the forecast released by Dutch bank Rabobank on Tuesday, China’s pig herd could halve by the end of 2019. It may take more than 5 years for China to recover its pork production to levels before the outbreaks, because of the lack of solutions to prevent the disease and insufficient capital for restocking.

A continuous decline in pig stocks leads to the decrease of pork supply, which in turn has pushed up pork prices. According to China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs, in June, the market price of pork reached RMB 25.63 per kilogram (kg), up by 29.2% YoY. Meanwhile, the price of live pigs was RMB 15.94 per kg, 40.8% higher than the previous year. The price of piglets hit RMB 39.77 per kg, surged by 65.7 YoY.

Both central and local governments have put in place countermeasures to deal with the outbreaks and to stabilize pork production and supply. For instance, the agriculture department of Guangdong province has used funds provided by the central government to subsidize pig farmers.

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